Several confidence measures in the United States have returned to the levels they held before the great financial collapse last fall. Do they presage an impending economic recovery?
US Consumer Confidence readings from the Conference Board and University of Michigan have pulled out of their deep post September troughs. The same is true for the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing and services surveys. But these forward looking sentiment statistics contrast markedly with measures that gauge actual economic commitments. The performance of the consumer and manager is much at odds with what they say is their economic view.
The return of these sentiment indicators nearly to pre-collapse levels combined with the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packaged enacted in the industrialized countries has convinced many equity traders and commentators that the recession has or will shortly ebb and growth is soon to revive. The problem with this scenario is that there are no substantive indicators that agree with the diagnosis.
In August of last year the University of Michigan overall consumer confidence number registered 63, in September the month of the Lehman bankruptcy, it was 70.3. These reading were down from occasions in the low 90s in the early part of 2007. In May of this year confidence had recovered to 68.1 from the mid-50s post collapse; this is the highest indication after September.
The 'expectations' section of the survey experienced a similar rebirth. From 67.2 in September 2008 it fell to a low of just over 50 in February before recovering to 69.4 in the month just past.
The 'current conditions' reading also improved but less than the others. It was 71 in August 2008, 75 in September, suffered a low in November of 57.5 and recovered to 68.3 in April of this year followed by a drop to 67.7 in May.
Readings from the Conference Board show a similar progression. The overall number was 58.5 last August, 61.4 in September and 54.9 last month. The ‘expectations’ component was 54.1 last August, 61.5 in September, 51 in April 2009 and 72.3 in May. And as with the Michigan survey, ‘current conditions’ was the most problematic. It was 65 in August of last year, 61.1 in September, reached a low of just below 22 in March of this year and by May had regained only 28.5.
The pattern is fairly uniform. A reviving ‘expectations’ component pulls the overall reading higher, while the 'current conditions' component is weak, or as in the Conference survey, barely in recovery at all.
The ISM results are similar. The manufacturing survey registered 49.9 in August 2008, 43.4 in September and by May had recovered to 42.8 from the mid 30s in February and March. 'New orders' were the most buoyant scoring a mildly expansionary 51.1 in May, above the 48.2 reading of last August and the sub 30 low of last November.
The non-manufacturing survey composite was 50.4 in the month before the crash, 50 in September, reached a low of 37.4 last November and had regained 44.0 last month. 'New orders' were 49.5 in August, 50.6 in September, dropped to a bottom on 35.6 in November and had bounced to a still contracting level of 44.4 in May.
But these sentiment numbers have not translated into consumer spending or industrial activity. It is as if everyone is saying. Yes, things are better, but I am not spending, I am saving more and I am worried about my job. But if you are asking, yes the overall economy has improved since last fall.
Consumer credit, personal expenditures, industrial production, and capital utilization remain firmly in recessionary territory.
Consumer deleveraging continues apace. Last September American consumers added $6.98 billion in debt to their portfolios. The three month moving average for consumer credit was $3.436 billion in August 2008 and $2.886 in September. In April of this year consumer credit contracted $15.7 billion; in March Americans subtracted $16.5 billion from their debt. The three month moving averages for these months were -$14.366 billon and -$7.533 billon respectively.
Personal expenditures have declined in six of the past eight months from last September. The only positive months were January and February of this year, when spending was prompted by retailers’ heavy post holiday discounts. In the eight months before September 2008 the ratio was exactly the opposite, six positive months and two, July and August were negative.
The productive economy is even more depressed than the consumer. Industrial production has been positive in only one month since the beginning of last year, October 2008. Capacity utilization in April was 69.1%, and has dropped even month since December 2007.
And consumers now have a new worry; US Federal deficits have the potential to create an interest rate drag on future economic growth.
Government bond prices have fallen substantially since March putting upward pressure on interest rates in the economy. On Friday the 10 year Treasury closed at 3.83% up more than 1.6% since March. 30 year mortgage rates near 5.4% are almost 0.5% higher than one month ago. Concomitantly the vast Federal funding needs have begun to damage the dollar. The lower the dollar goes the higher reach commodity prices fueling inflation. A sinking dollar driving up crude oil prices belongs to the scenario that gave consumers $4 a gallon gasoline last summer. The Fed will be very hard pressed to keep rates low enough to benefit consumer spending, facilitate government debt sales and restrain fears of future inflation.
Considering the chasm that the world economy has fallen into since last fall, some recovery in sentiment was inevitable. Catastrophe averted is better than catastrophe endured but to borrow a phrase from Churchill, 'We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations'.
I suspect that the relief that the world did not end last fall and spring is coloring the expectations of consumers and managers alike. Outlooks are much better; indeed it would be hard to be much worse than the media coverage of the economy last fall. But relief is not migrating from the mind to the pocketbook. More improvement will have to happen, particularly in the job outlook, before the consumers again take up their burdens.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Sleeping During Pregnancy
During pregnancy, inadequate sleep is a common complain made by women, mostly, due to the result of anxiety and stress, hormonal fluctuations, and physical discomfort.
As your pregnancy progresses, you may find it more difficult to find a comfortable position, or you may have to get up several times during the night to empty your increasingly cramped bladder.
Causes of inadequate sleep
Frequent trips to the bathroom- In early pregnancy and late pregnancy when the bladder is compressed by the baby. Especially during your first trimester, when the sleep-inducing hormone progesterone starts surging through your body, and pressure on your bladder from your growing uterus sends you scurrying to the bathroom countless times every night.
Heartburn- Usually occurs in the second trimester and is another cause for sleep disturbance. The uterus pushes up against your organs causing pressure on the stomach. At times, stomach acid wills back-flow into the esophagus causing heartburn.
Fetal Movement- Once the baby starts to kick and move about (usually around the 5th or 6th month) you may be awakened by a particularly feisty fetus.
Physical Discomfort- The bigger you get, the more difficult the task of finding a comfortable sleeping position. Your breasts may be sore in early pregnancy too.
Emotional Worry- Many women feel such anxiety about their child that they lay awake in the wee hours of the morning thinking of all the things that could possibly happen. This is no time to focus on the bad, but the perfect opportunity to practice breathing and relaxation techniques you will need for birth.
Shortness of Breath- Shortness of breath may occur late in pregnancy before the baby has dropped into the pelvis. The uterus and baby are pushing upward into the rib cage making breathing in sitting and lying positions difficult. Again, try lying on your side or propping up your shoulders with pillows.
Tips for a better Sleep
Check out these tips to get a better and more comfortable night's sleep, and the critical rest your body and mind need during this time.
•Drink plenty of fluids during the day, but cut down before bedtime to minimize frequent nighttime urination.
•Try lying in a semi upright position. Check with your doctor before taking antacids.
•To prevent heartburn, don't recline until 1-2 hours after a meal. If heartburn is a problem, sleep with your head elevated on pillows. Also, avoid spicy, acidic (such as tomato products), or fried foods as they may worsen symptoms. Try a glass of milk or a change in sleeping position.
•Try positioning pillows behind your back and between your knees while lying on your side. Also available in some stores are the body pillow and the pregnancy wedge pillow.
•Exercise regularly for optimum health, and to improve circulation. Avoid exercising late in the day-exercise releases adrenaline into your body which can keep you awake at night.
•Stress and anxiety are key culprits in preventing a good night's sleep. Remember that worrying won't help you, but talking about your problems will. Find a friend or a professional who can listen and help you if there are issues in your life that are causing you to worry or feel upset.
•If you're not getting enough rest at night, take a nap to help reduce fatigue. Find a quiet spot, and relax even if only for a half-hour nap.
Support your body. Use a special pregnancy body pillow or a regular pillow to support your body. For comfort, try sleeping on your side with one pillow under your knee and another under your belly.
•Completely eliminate caffeine and alcohol to prevent insomnia. If nausea is a problem for you, try eating frequent bland snacks (like crackers) throughout the day.
Keeping your stomach slightly full helps keep nausea at bay. Eat a well-balanced diet.
Not only is this crucial for you and your baby's health, but getting the necessary nutrients will help keep you feeling satisfied and less prone to major nighttime "snack attacks" that may contribute to restlessness and insomnia when you go to sleep.
See your doctor for advice if insomnia persists. Now more than ever it's important to get the rest you need!
What's the best sleep position during pregnancy?
Lying on your left side is actually good for you and your baby: It improves the flow of blood and nutrients to the placenta and it helps your kidneys efficiently eliminate waste products and fluids from your body.
That, in turn, reduces swelling in your ankles, feet, and hands. If you train yourself to sleep on your left side early on, you'll have an easier time falling asleep when your belly is bulging later.
During the second half of pregnancy, avoid sleeping on your back, a position that puts the full weight of your uterus on your spine, back muscles, intestines, and the inferior vena cava.
Back-sleeping can also put you at risk for backaches and hemorrhoids, inefficient digestion, and impaired breathing and circulation. Lying on your back in the second and third trimester can also cause changes in blood pressure.
For some women, it can cause a drop in blood pressure that can make them feel dizzy; for others, it can cause an unwanted increase in blood pressure.
As your pregnancy progresses, you may find it more difficult to find a comfortable position, or you may have to get up several times during the night to empty your increasingly cramped bladder.
Causes of inadequate sleep
Frequent trips to the bathroom- In early pregnancy and late pregnancy when the bladder is compressed by the baby. Especially during your first trimester, when the sleep-inducing hormone progesterone starts surging through your body, and pressure on your bladder from your growing uterus sends you scurrying to the bathroom countless times every night.
Heartburn- Usually occurs in the second trimester and is another cause for sleep disturbance. The uterus pushes up against your organs causing pressure on the stomach. At times, stomach acid wills back-flow into the esophagus causing heartburn.
Fetal Movement- Once the baby starts to kick and move about (usually around the 5th or 6th month) you may be awakened by a particularly feisty fetus.
Physical Discomfort- The bigger you get, the more difficult the task of finding a comfortable sleeping position. Your breasts may be sore in early pregnancy too.
Emotional Worry- Many women feel such anxiety about their child that they lay awake in the wee hours of the morning thinking of all the things that could possibly happen. This is no time to focus on the bad, but the perfect opportunity to practice breathing and relaxation techniques you will need for birth.
Shortness of Breath- Shortness of breath may occur late in pregnancy before the baby has dropped into the pelvis. The uterus and baby are pushing upward into the rib cage making breathing in sitting and lying positions difficult. Again, try lying on your side or propping up your shoulders with pillows.
Tips for a better Sleep
Check out these tips to get a better and more comfortable night's sleep, and the critical rest your body and mind need during this time.
•Drink plenty of fluids during the day, but cut down before bedtime to minimize frequent nighttime urination.
•Try lying in a semi upright position. Check with your doctor before taking antacids.
•To prevent heartburn, don't recline until 1-2 hours after a meal. If heartburn is a problem, sleep with your head elevated on pillows. Also, avoid spicy, acidic (such as tomato products), or fried foods as they may worsen symptoms. Try a glass of milk or a change in sleeping position.
•Try positioning pillows behind your back and between your knees while lying on your side. Also available in some stores are the body pillow and the pregnancy wedge pillow.
•Exercise regularly for optimum health, and to improve circulation. Avoid exercising late in the day-exercise releases adrenaline into your body which can keep you awake at night.
•Stress and anxiety are key culprits in preventing a good night's sleep. Remember that worrying won't help you, but talking about your problems will. Find a friend or a professional who can listen and help you if there are issues in your life that are causing you to worry or feel upset.
•If you're not getting enough rest at night, take a nap to help reduce fatigue. Find a quiet spot, and relax even if only for a half-hour nap.
Support your body. Use a special pregnancy body pillow or a regular pillow to support your body. For comfort, try sleeping on your side with one pillow under your knee and another under your belly.
•Completely eliminate caffeine and alcohol to prevent insomnia. If nausea is a problem for you, try eating frequent bland snacks (like crackers) throughout the day.
Keeping your stomach slightly full helps keep nausea at bay. Eat a well-balanced diet.
Not only is this crucial for you and your baby's health, but getting the necessary nutrients will help keep you feeling satisfied and less prone to major nighttime "snack attacks" that may contribute to restlessness and insomnia when you go to sleep.
See your doctor for advice if insomnia persists. Now more than ever it's important to get the rest you need!
What's the best sleep position during pregnancy?
Lying on your left side is actually good for you and your baby: It improves the flow of blood and nutrients to the placenta and it helps your kidneys efficiently eliminate waste products and fluids from your body.
That, in turn, reduces swelling in your ankles, feet, and hands. If you train yourself to sleep on your left side early on, you'll have an easier time falling asleep when your belly is bulging later.
During the second half of pregnancy, avoid sleeping on your back, a position that puts the full weight of your uterus on your spine, back muscles, intestines, and the inferior vena cava.
Back-sleeping can also put you at risk for backaches and hemorrhoids, inefficient digestion, and impaired breathing and circulation. Lying on your back in the second and third trimester can also cause changes in blood pressure.
For some women, it can cause a drop in blood pressure that can make them feel dizzy; for others, it can cause an unwanted increase in blood pressure.
Sexually Transmitted Diseases/HIV
A sexually transmitted disease (STD) is defined as a disease-causing virus, bacterium, parasite or fungus spread from person to person primarily through sexual contact. These agents thrive in most warm conditions in the body, such as the mouth and vagina. Some STDs can be transmitted in ways other than just sexual contact, for example contact with infected blood. Sharing infected needles or receiving a transfusion of infected blood can pass on the STD. Bacterial, fungal and parasitic STDs are curable with proper medication. Viral STDs have no cure at this time, but can be managed with proper medication.
Women, it is important to recognize, are more vulnerable to STDs from a biological and socioeconomic perspective. While the majority of STDs show little or no symptoms, the consequences of late diagnosis can be severe for women - cervical cancer, ectopic pregnancy and infertility, to name a few.
Sexually active young adults and teenagers are the largest cohort diagnosed with STDs. An estimated 200 to 400 million people worldwide are affected - 70 million in the U.S.
Women, it is important to recognize, are more vulnerable to STDs from a biological and socioeconomic perspective. While the majority of STDs show little or no symptoms, the consequences of late diagnosis can be severe for women - cervical cancer, ectopic pregnancy and infertility, to name a few.
Sexually active young adults and teenagers are the largest cohort diagnosed with STDs. An estimated 200 to 400 million people worldwide are affected - 70 million in the U.S.
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